2017 Predictions

On our Year End Episode (Ep 14) Ian and I discussed what we were watching in the up coming year. Below is an expanded list of what I will be keeping an eye on and what I predict will happen.  Attached to each prediction is a confidence level, expressed in percentage terms. If my confidence is properly calibrated it should match the odds of the prediction coming true. In other words, if I make ten 60% prediction then 6 of them should happen. At the end of the 2017 I will score these to see how many I got right.

1. Star Wars Episode VIII will set a new box office record. 90%
2. Moonlight will win Best Picture 60%
3. Rouge One will win a Technical Oscar 55%
4. Jon Snow, Daenerys and Cersei Lannister will be alive at the end of the upcoming Game of Thrones season 55%
5. 2016 sucked jokes will stop being funny after Jan 20th 95%
6. At least one Trump cabinet pick will not be confirmed 70%
6. A) Contingent on #6 the reason will be close ties to Russia 80%
7. Trump’s pick to replace Justice Scalia will be confirmed 90%
8. There will not be a second SCOTUS vacancy 80%
9. Trump will have a major (defined as dominating the media for a period greater than 7 days or a drop of 5 percentage points in approval rating) scandal within 3 months of taking office 80%
10. Trump will have a scandal involving his business interests and the emoluments clause within 6 months 90%
11. There will be one serious call by the democrats for impeachment within 6 months 60%
11. A) Contingent on #11 House Republicans will vote down such measures 80%
12. Democrats will succumb to infighting rather than present a united front against Trump 60%
13. A secession movement in the pacific states will not reach or surpass 10% popular support 90%
14. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first 3 months of the Trump administration 50%
15. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first 6 months of the Trump administration 65%
16. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first year of the Trump administration 80%
17. Relations between Trump and House/Senate Republicans will sour 60%
18. Relations between Trump and House/Senate Republicans will not sour to the point where the GOP congressmen vote to impeach 85%
19. Trump will not develop a serious health problem 80%
20. Mike Pence will not become the 46th President 90%
21. Trump will attempt to renegotiate NAFTA 80%
22. The US-Canada trade relationship will not significantly change 60%
23. Trudeau’s popularity will drop below that of 19 Oct 2015 70%
24. No legislation to enact electoral reform or initiate a referendum on the matter will be passed by parliament 70%
25. There will be changes to Canadian federal political finance laws 70%
26. The 2017 Federal budget will have a larger deficit than the 2016 budget projected 55%
27. Kinder Morgan gets stalled in court and no significant construction takes place 80%
28. There will be a federal cabinet shuffle 80%
28. A) Contingent on #28 Maryam Monsef will be removed from cabinet 90%
29. Nathan Cullen will become the NDP Leader 55%
30. NDP does not adopt the LEAP Manifesto 55%
31. CPC Leadership is too uncertain but rough odds are: Andrew Scheer 40%, Maxime Bernier 30%, Michael Chong 30%
32. Kevin O’Leary does not enter the CPC leadership race 60%
33. Christy Clark will win reelection 60%
34. The BC Green Party will increase its seat count 60%
35. Kathleen Wynne does not resign 60%
36. Britain does not invoke Article 50 60%
37. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor of Germany 70%
38. No other EU country will announce plans to leave 70%
39. Far Right/Alt Right does better than expected in at least on European election 60%
40. China does not have political turmoil on par with or surpassing Tiananmen Square 90%
41. North Korea’s regime will remain in place. 90%
42. Assad remains President of Syria 95%
43. ISIS remains a functioning organization 85%
44. ISIS losses territory 80%
45. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in the USA 95%
46. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in Canada 95%
47. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in EU 80%
48. No major intifada in Israel this year ( >250 Israeli deaths) 80%
49. No major Israeli military operation against its neighbors (>500 casualties) 80%
50. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 55%
51. No major war (>100 military casualties) in Asia 90%
52. Canadian Forces does not deploy a battle group size force to a new theatre 55%
53. Canadian Forces deploys a force smaller than a battle group to a new theatre 60%
54. There will be a cyber-attack attributed (but not confirmed) to a state actor on a NATO country 70%
55. Global extreme poverty will decrease 90%
56. Average global life expectancy will increase 90%
57. Vancouver Housing prices will drop 60%
58. House Prices will not drop >20% 70%
59. Broadway subway to UBC will receive funding 55%
60. Vancouver implements congestion pricing 55%
61. There will be no major changes to Vancouver land use policy 90%
62. Massey Tunnel replacement will face at least one delay 65%
63. Queen Elizabeth will pass away 55%
64. A Republican movement does not gain traction in Canada 90%
65. The Alt Right does not gain a foothold in Canada, defined as an affiliated party gaining a seat or a candidate winning a leadership race in an established party at any level 90%
66. S&P 500 will close lower at the end of 2017 than 2016 (2,238.83) 55%
67. Oil will closer higher at the end of 2017 than 2016 (WTI Crude $53.72) 70%
68. US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 70%
69. Bank of Canada will raise interest rate 60%
70. Canadian GDP will grow less than 2.1% 55%
71. Canada’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 80%
72. America’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 60%
73. Alberta’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 60%
74. Tesla will announce a delay for the model 3 60%
75. SpaceX will successfully relaunch a previously used rocket 70%
76. SpaceX will launch, recover and re-launch a rocket within two weeks 50%
77. The US announces a major new manned space initiative 50%
78. Controversy over the EM drive is resolved 50%
79. The US will install more renewable electricity generating capacity than non-renewable 80%
80. Canada has at least one record setting extreme weather event 80%
81. BC has at least one record setting extreme weather event 50%
82. A weather related natural disaster in Canada causes at least $1B in damage 50%
83. The Cascadia subduction zone does not have an Earthquake of 9.0 or greater 98%
84. Canucks win the Stanley Cup. A wildly optimistic 90%

Feel free to post yours in the comments.

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